How to avoid the doubling penalty
Do not trigger the end unless you have a meaningful buffer below the likely scores of every opponent.
A one-point lead is fragile because opponents still receive a turn. Aim for a visible score low enough to survive one or two sensible improvements elsewhere.
Remember that a tie still fails the single lowest test.
Also: the nerdy view
Treat ending as a decision under downside risk. Compare expected ordinary score with the probability-weighted doubled positive score. The larger your positive total, the more expensive a failed ending becomes.
Zero and negative totals do not receive the positive-score doubling penalty, which changes the risk profile dramatically.
- Average value of an unseen card
- ≈ 5.07
- Expected cost of one more hidden card
- +5.07 pts
- Cost of ending without the unique lowest
- Your round doubles
- Zero and negative round scores
- Never double
Confidence: Moderate: a real mid-round deck is depleted. Full workings on the methodology page. Methodology ↗
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