Skyjo probability basics
Use the actual card distribution and subtract known cards before estimating a draw.
Low cards are valuable, but not every number appears with the same frequency. Seeing several copies of a value also makes another copy less likely to remain.
Also: the nerdy view
Begin with the published deck counts, then remove every card you can observe in layouts, discard history where known and your own replaced cards. Divide the remaining count for an outcome by the total unseen cards.
For a threshold question such as chance of drawing 4 or lower, add the remaining counts from -2 through 4.
The calculation is conditional on remembered information. A forgotten buried discard should be treated as unknown rather than silently assigned to the draw pile.
- Average value of an unseen card
- ≈ 5.07
- Break-even holding for a blind draw
- 5.07
- Chance an unseen card beats a 6
- 53%
- Chance an unseen card beats a 10
- 80%
Confidence: Moderate: a real mid-round deck is depleted. Full workings on the methodology page. Methodology ↗
Written in our own words and checked against the official rulebook. Skyjo.co.uk is an independent guide, not affiliated with Magilano. Spot an error? Tell us and we fix it.